South Florida income property: 2026 Q3
Palm Beach, Broward, Martin, St. Lucie and Miami-Dade. Written October 7, 2026, from public data (FRED, BLS, county tax rolls, SEC CMBS filings).
The short version
- Debt costs about 7.26% for a 5-year bank loan (5-year Treasury plus 2.25%). With 25-year amortization a lender at 1.25x coverage and 65% of value needs the building to earn about 7.1%. Anything priced below that is bought with more cash or a bet on rent growth.
- The 10-year Treasury is 5.31% (+1.18 pts on the year).
- Jobs: West Palm Beach-Boca +0.7% and Fort Lauderdale -0.1% over the year to August. Unemployment in the metro is 3.7%.
- Consumer prices in the metro rose 3.7% in a year (3.4% nationally): a lease with smaller fixed bumps loses ground every year.
- Banks report 1.53% of commercial real estate loans delinquent (-0.04 pts on the year, Q2 2026).
- Securitized (CMBS) loans on buildings here: 328 loans, $7.3B. 6 are in trouble ($133M); 32 come due within a year ($471M); 30 have a big tenant whose lease ends first.
Rates
| Latest | Change over a year | |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury | 5.31% (Oct 05) | +1.18 pts |
| 30-year mortgage rate | 7.28% (Oct 01) | +0.98 pts |
| Estimated 5-year bank loan | 7.26% | |
| Cap rate a 65% loan needs for 1.25x coverage | 7.05% |
Local economy
| Latest | Change over a year | |
|---|---|---|
| Jobs, West Palm Beach-Boca Raton metro division (thousands) | 703.2 (Aug 2026) | +0.7% |
| Jobs, Fort Lauderdale metro division (thousands) | 914.5 (Aug 2026) | -0.1% |
| Jobs, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro (thousands) | 2,967.1 (Aug 2026) | +0.4% |
| Office-using jobs (professional & business services), Miami metro (thousands) | 532.4 (Aug 2026) | +0.8% |
| Unemployment rate, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro | 3.7% (Aug 2026) | +0.00 pts |
| CPI, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach | 370.1 (Aug 2026) | +3.7% |
| CPI, US city average | 335.0 (Aug 2026) | +3.4% |
What buildings sold for
Median price per square foot of building, Palm Beach, Broward and Martin county sales over $100,000, 12 months to June 2026 against the 12 months before. County tax rolls lag a few months; these are recorded deeds, not asking prices. A median moves with the mix of buildings that sold, so read small groups (office especially) as direction, not a price index.
| Type | Sales | Median $/sf | 12 months before | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multifamily | 1063 | $299 | $299 | +0.2% |
| Retail | 245 | $311 | $311 | +0.1% |
| Industrial | 365 | $271 | $276 | -1.9% |
| Office | 248 | $364 | $321 | +13.3% |
Distress watch: securitized loans
Every public CMBS trust reports each loan monthly to the SEC: payment status, coverage, occupancy, the three largest tenants and their lease dates. In these five counties:
| County | Loans | In trouble |
|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | 131 | 2 |
| Broward | 98 | 3 |
| Palm Beach | 82 | 0 |
| St. Lucie | 14 | 1 |
| Martin | 3 | 0 |
30 loans ($501M) have a tenant with 20% or more of the building whose lease ends within three years and before (or within a year of) the loan coming due. Those owners have to re-let the space or refinance with the hole showing, at today's rates.
What I'm watching
- Loans made in 2016-2021 cost about 2.9%-4.9%. As they come due over the next few years they reprice near 7.3%: the same building supports a smaller loan, and the owner covers the gap with cash or sells.
- Big leases ending before loan maturities (the list above), and county foreclosure filings.
Sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Florida Department of Revenue tax rolls, SEC EDGAR ABS-EE filings. Quarter ended September 30, 2026.
Market commentary from public data, not investment, tax or legal advice. Figures can contain errors and change as sources revise them. Questions: [email protected] or (561) 247-3842.